Category Archives: Obama

Hillary or Obama? What’s the difference?

THE POLITICAL SCENE

THE CHOICE

The Clinton-Obama battle reveals two very different ideas of the Presidency.

by George PackerJANUARY 28, 2008

Here’s an excellent article that goes into detail about the difference between Hillary and Obama. 

Reversing the “Bradley Effect” – Gender Style

A new explanation for Hillary’s Iowa loss & New Hampshire win

[NOTE: Most often I post other people’s articles, but here’s an editorial of my own.] 

We’ve all heard the chatter that has erupted regarding why polling failed to accurately predict Hillary Clinton’s win last week in New Hampshire.  We all know it had something to do with women – lots of them – turning out in support of her. 

Simultaneously though, many leading political analysts, including, respectably, The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza, have cross-examined the possibility that it was less a Hillary win and more of an Obama loss thanks to the so-called “Bradley Effect” – the term used for the theoretical phenomenon where some voters will publicly tell pollsters that they’ll vote for a black candidate but actually won’t do so once they are ensconced in the privacy of the voting booth.  Ultimately, most analysts have concluded that the “Bradley Effect” was, probably, not in play last week.  End of story.

Is it though?  What no one is considering, Lizza included, is that a related phenomenon – shall we dub it the “Hillary Effect”? – may be in play, wherein some voters may not be willing to publicly say to pollsters that they’ll vote for Hillary, but once in the privacy of the voting booth, they actually will vote for her.  It’s a gender-based version of the “Bradley Effect” – reversed.

This explains both her Iowa loss and her New Hampshire win, where Iowa’s caucuses are almost embarrassingly public carnivals compared to New Hampshire’s quiet and tidy private primary voting booths.

It is not unthinkable that this new phenomenon – the “Hillary Effect” – may be introduced in this election season.  Why?  The complexities of gender combined with a vocal and public hatred that borders on the irrational.  The press regularly informs us that Hillary has high negative ratings.  We all know she’s a lightening rod for impassioned hatred (though some, including me, are not exactly sure why).  The knowledge that so many voters supposedly dislike her may make some of us less willing to admit publicly that we will vote for her.  Many Republican women (and Republican men, for that matter – heck, even regular Democrats) may be supporting her in secret, afraid to reveal their feelings.  In other words, if they do support her, they don’t support her enough to speak up about it for fear of having to cross swords with those supposed loudmouths proclaiming so publicly that they really really hate her.  Faced with voices screaming a chorus of Hillary hatred, her supporters may just keep their support secretly to themselves.

Perhaps, come November, should Hillary be the Democratic Party’s nominee, the first woman to be President of the United States will win in a historic landslide that the pollsters could not possibly have predicted.

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[NOTE: You can read my editorial about Kerry’s 2004 loss that was printed in the Boston Sunday Globe on November 14, 2004.]

 

Obama: From Promise to Power

I haven’t been posting much lately because I’ve been listening to a biography of Barak Obama on my iPod that I downloaded from Audible.com.  The author, a journalist from the Chicago Tribune, finds himself in the unexpected and most qualified position to write a biography, he being the journalist following Obama’s career for the longest time: 3 years.  This doesn’t mean he’s a great writer; nearly every other paragraph begins with “Indeed, . . .”, and it is difficult for the author to hide just how smitten he is with his subject, yet it is an excellent listen, regardless.  And who am I to criticize his writing, being no author myself?

I wouldn’t bet my money that Obama will be president . . . nor am I convinced that he should be.  I admit, though: I find myself emotionally very enamored with him as a concept.  Imagine a smart, visionary, kinda-black, kinda-white, kinda-muslim, kinda-christian, kinda-conservative, kinda-liberal, kinda-young, kinda-old, kinda-American, kinda-International”an”, incredibly charismatic man to lead the United States.  He could manifest a generational transformation of the country which could have enormous impact at home and throughout the rest of the world.  Obama’s candidacy represents an American dream many of us have had for a long time, and never before has it been so close, so needed, and so possible.  The man’s so perfect for the job.  The only skeleton in his closet?  He smokes.  And apparently the wife only agreed to let him run for President if he quit.

That said, I have little faith a Democrat will be elected this next round.  Never “mis”underestimate the Republicans.  I’ll be relieved if, in January 2009, we have our first clearly and undisputably-elected presidential choice sworn in since 1997 (since Clinton was sworn in for his second term our elections have been tense and disputed).  The rich are so fat, the corporate so empowered and unchained, and the people so busy “increasing American productivity” by working many jobs and going into debt, that the US is ripe for a coup cloaked in the drama of national security and terror.  Will Bush-Cheney really relinquish power?  I’ll be relieved when it happens, and I have faith that it will, but will not be surprised if it doesn’t.  Just in case, I’m safe in Stockholm.  🙂

Buy Obama’s book here.

Andrew Sullivan’s essay “Goodbye to All That” about Barak Obama’s presidential candidacy…

Goodbye to All That
by Andrew Sullivan
The Atlantic Monthly

December 2007

The Swedish press is even writing about Andrew Sullivan’s article about Barak Obama, which I’ve attached here as a PDF file. There don’t seem to be any copies of the article anywhere on the Web, unless you have access to The Atlantic’s web site, so I’m posting it here to see if the FBI shows up at my Stockholm apartment. Sullivan’s article is an excellent read, and should be read by EVERYONE in IOWA. Sullivan finds the words to explain why some of us, myself included, feel so strongly about the potential for an Obama presidency to, as Sullivan writes, build a “bridge to the 21st century that” (ironically) “Bill Clinton told us about.” Read it HERE in PDF.